Tipd on the general market

1. If you aren’t right on the general market, your chances of being successful decrease.
2. Three out of four stocks usually follow the trend of the general market.
3. It’s not necessary to try to predict the future… you only need to understand exactly what the market is actually doing right now.
4. You need to determine if the general market is strong and ender accumulation, or under distribution and starting to turn down.
5. Many of the greatest winer of the last 40 years began their biggest moves at the start of a new bull market when most investors were uncertain and afraid to invest.
6. Other winners made their super price moves as the general market quickly emerged from a short or intermediate term downtrend.
7. Typical bear market corrections in the Nasdaq last only a short 5 or 6 months and you positively want to be there to take full advantage of all the new emerging market leaders.
8. A top on the Dow, S&P 500, or Nasdaq averages usually occurs when the index goes into new high ground and on several different days shows an increase in volume from the days before, but price action stalls and shows either much less progress or actually closes down.
9. Don’t buy on the first or second day of an attempted rally because you can;t be sure if the rally will follow through.
10. Watch an attempted rally closely to see if it follows through by showing power and strength on any day, usually between the fourth and twelfth day.
11. The power and strength on a true follow through day will show one of the indexes up 1% or more and volume increasing from the prior day.
12. If is absolutely critical to keep your eye on the General Market Indicators every day, even when you aren’t currently invested.

Getting Real 37signals

http://gettingreal.37signals.com/

How to Start a Business

By TOM TAULLI

Published: September 2, 2009

You’ve made the huge decision to start a business. As you probably know, most efforts to start a business end in failure. Fortunately, there are things you can do to guard against wasting time and money and improve your odds. While every business is unique and comes with its own set of problems and opportunities, there are some basic steps — writing a business plan, proving the concept, raising capital, choosing a legal structure — to consider when getting started. Let’s take a look:

The Business Plan

Writing a business plan seems like a chore, but it’s critical. It doesn’t have to be formal or long — just a few pages is fine. But try to cover the basic sections, especially if you expect to make a pitch to investors or lenders. These sections should include an overview of the business, industry background, the product or service, the business model (how will you make money?), the strategy and the team. For guidance, take a look at Score’s business plan template.

Think of the process as a way to better understand the opportunity and the risks. It may even show you that the business is too tough. If that’s the case, you want to know it as soon as possible.

Try to answer the following in the business plan:

1) Who is the customer?

Try to focus on a defined market segment. In some cases, it should be easy. Perhaps you are aiming at lawyers. But if your product applies to virtually anybody, you need to narrow things. Look at Amazon. At first, the Web company focused on books. Once it built a strong business there, it moved into other categories.

So, where to start? Try to find the customer segment that is experiencing the most pain or is willing to bet on new ideas.

2) What’s happening with your market?

Immerse yourself in the market. What are the major trends? How will they help or hurt your venture? Along with doing Google searches, you should also check out trade publications and association Web sites.

If your business is in retail, look at ZoomProspector, which provides helpful information on local economic trends (population, income and demographics). Visit Yelp.com and see how many competing retail outlets you’ll be facing. Is the market too crowded?

Finally, make a list of your competitors and update it regularly.

3) What are the start-up costs?

Be realistic. Entrepreneurs often underestimate the time and expense of starting and operating a company. Put together a detailed start-up budget as well as a forecast (Score’s template offers a worksheet).

As you put things together, look for ways to minimize costs. Some ideas: shopping for used equipment on Craigslist, bartering your services, using free or inexpensive online applications like Skype (for free calling), Web.com (to setup a Web site) and VistaPrint (for printing business cards and brochures). Always ask for discounts.

At the same time, think of creative ways to increase revenue. Maybe you can mount an online marketing campaign through Google Adwords or use VerticalResponse for an e-mail newsletter.

O.K., you’ve got a plan.

Prove the Concept

Once you’re satisfied with the business plan, the next step is to test it. This means answering the question: Do customers really want to buy what you intend to sell?

It’s a brutal question, but you need to be realistic.

One idea is to talk to potential customers, but avoid your friends; instead, identify a list of likely customers and call them. The good news is that there are many free lists on the Internet. They include sites like CPAdirectory.com, Lawyers.com, Dentists.com and so on.

While the calling is not glamorous, you’ll eventually get a sense of whether there’s demand. You will also get new ideas to refine your product, and you will build valuable sales skills, which is critical for anyone starting a business.

Next, you can conduct a survey using an online service like Zoomerang, which has a panel of about two million people. You can designate groups with up to 500 attributes (industry, age, gender, income and so on). This is a quick way to get feedback on your business idea.

Or, you can set up a free Web site and try selling your product. This was the approach for Sneaky’s BBQ, which set up a blog at sneakysbbq.blogspot.com. Believing that there were few good places for authentic barbecue in San Francisco, Patrick Wachter started to cook up his recipes in his backyard and put out free ads on Craigslist. It was a hit as word-of-mouth spread, helped along by review sites like Yelp. “We can’t even eat our own barbecue anymore,” Mr. Wachter said. “It’s already spoken for by the time we pull it off the smoker.”

Here’s another example: Megan Calhoun saw that it was difficult to use online services to find other mothers. Deciding she wanted to “be fast, be cheap and see where it takes you,” she registered TwitterMoms.com, and instead of building a Web site, she used the free service Ning.com, which allows you to build your own social network. On the first night, four mothers joined, and from there, it grew and grew. Now she has 15,000 members and has attracted advertisers like Lands’ End, Children’s Place and even José Cuervo. The total cost to launch? Only $50.

Raising Capital

This is time-consuming and can distract your attention from the business. It can easily take six months to get your first investment. Investors are naturally hesitant and want to see proof that the business is viable.

That means you will probably need to bootstrap. This is not easy but it does have the advantage of allowing you to keep more control and a larger equity stake.

You can do things like: borrow against your 401(k), life insurance and house; use credit cards; and even do consulting projects.

Next, you can reach out to your friends, family and colleagues. Even though they may trust you, it’s important that you have a convincing business plan and investor contracts. To this end, check out Virgin Money. This online service provides the necessary legal documents, administers the loan payments and makes reports to credit agencies (which will help build a credit history for the business).

It’s tempting to seek financing from banks, angel groups and venture capitalists, but those sources usually look at more established businesses.

Choosing a Legal Structure

If you are bringing on investors or partners or signing contracts, it’s a good idea to set up a legal structure for your venture. Here are the main alternatives:

Sole Proprietorship: You are the sole owner. There is little red tape or expense. But there is a big downside: unlimited liability. If the business is the target of a lawsuit or owes a large debt, the owner’s personal assets are exposed to seizure.

A sole proprietorship is known as a “pass through” entity. This means that the income is taxed on your personal return.

Partnership: There is more than one owner. And as with the sole proprietorship, there is little paperwork involved and it is a pass-through entity for tax purposes. Unfortunately, partnerships also have unlimited liability exposure.

Corporation: The fees can easily range from $200 to $1,000. Even though you can use cost-effective online services to help out, such as LegalZoom, it’s still a good idea to have a lawyer review the documents and filings. You can find a qualified attorney by visiting sites like Avvo.

The main benefit is limited liability protection. This means that the business owner risks only the investment in the company.

Keep in mind that there are different flavors of corporations, which are often based on how taxes are paid. For example, a limited liability company (L.L.C.) and S-Corp are pass-through entities. On the other hand, a C-Corp is taxed — and so are the dividends. Before making a decision, consult a certified public accountant. It can be a big money saver.

Regardless of the legal structure, business owners should also think about the legal issues of the company name. It’s a good idea to find a name that is memorable and distinctive, but that is no easy task. Anders Heie, the founder of KaDonk said: “When thinking of a name, I hit my head against the wall and the sound it made was kadonk, kadonk, kadonk. Our lawyers loved it. It was unique, and had nothing to do with our product, so we grabbed all the domains and went with it.”

A lawyer can help with the process.

Quick Tips:

• Test your business idea by creating a list of potential customers — and then call them. Will they buy what you want to sell?
• Get a handle on your start-up costs and then find ways to lower them, as you can with online services like VistaPrint, craigslist, Web.com and Skype.
• Prove your concept by trying it out before you launch.

Suggested Reading:

• Zoomerang: Do a quick survey to see if your business idea has promise.
• SCORE: Get free business plan templates and worksheets for start-up expenses.
• Avvo.com and LegalZoom.com: Find qualified attorneys or even use online services to incorporate and get trademarks.
• Virgin Money: On this online service you can find documents to help you set up loans with family and friends.
• LogoWorks: This service provides quality logos at affordable prices.
• “3 Weeks to Startup” by Tim Berry and Sabrina Parsons (Entrepreneur Press, 2008). This book goes through the main ingredients of starting a business, with helpful online resources, charts and checklists.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/03/business/smallbusiness/03sbizguide.html

On to Plan B: Starting a Business

By MICKEY MEECE
CALL them accidental entrepreneurs, unintended entrepreneurs or forced entrepreneurs. A year and a half into the Great Recession, with the jobless rate hovering near double digits, corporate refugees like Lisa Marie Grillos of San Francisco are trying to fend for themselves.

Along with her brother Hernan Barangan, Mrs. Grillos started Hambone Designs, after her full-time contract position with Williams-Sonoma as a production manager wasn’t renewed in January. The new company makes bicycle bags that hold things like keys, wallets and cellphones.

“You have the time — why not focus your energy on something, rather than just trolling Craigslist and sitting and watching TV?” Mrs. Grillos says. “It’s really taking matters in my own hands.”

Mrs. Grillos, 34, built a Web site called hambonedesigns.com, opened a virtual shop on Etsy.com, an online marketplace, and hit San Francisco street fairs. So far, between the online marketing and the street fairs, she and her brother have sold 70 bags, which retail for $20 to $40. Each sale results in a profit.

“We have been talking about mass producing, but we’re not there yet,” Mrs. Grillos says. “It is a whole other thing, approaching stores and having the inventory.”

To help make ends meet, Mrs. Grillos also does textile design and photography projects, and it helps that her husband has a full-time job.

Others among the unemployed are taking the entrepreneurial route. The most recent Index of Entrepreneurial Activity by the Kauffman Foundation showed a slight uptick of new businesses in 2008 — a full recessionary year — over 2007. An average of 320 Americans out of 100,000 formed a business each month, Kauffman said. What’s more, it found, the patterns “provide some early evidence that ‘necessity’ entrepreneurship is increasing and ‘opportunity’ entrepreneurship is decreasing.”

Accidental or by design, entrepreneurship is on the rise again this year. LegalZoom, the online legal document service, says the number of new businesses it helped to form was up 10 percent in the first half of the year, compared with the period a year earlier.

“We were surprised,” says Brian Liu, co-founder and chairman of LegalZoom. “We expected there to be a drastic downtick.”

LegalZoom’s top five areas of incorporation, he says, are real estate, consulting, Internet (including electronic commerce), retail, and construction and contractors.

To be sure, a vast majority of corporate workers who have been laid off since December 2007 have sought another corporate job. After all, starting a business in the worst downturn in decades seems especially risky. Only two-thirds of new small businesses survive at least two years, according to the Small Business Administration. That survival rate falls to 44 percent at four years, and to 31 percent at seven.

The silver lining may be that the survival rate is about the same in expansions and recessions, says Dane Stangler, senior analyst at Kauffman.

WHILE the Internet has made the formation process quick and inexpensive — papers can be filed with LegalZoom, for example, for $149 in addition to state filing fees — the costs of owning a business add up quickly. There are state and local taxes and fees, insurance, salaries and contract pay, overhead, inventory and the like. And these days, lenders are none too generous when it comes to forking over money to new businesses.

These factors, combined with the lack of a steady paycheck, often-inadequate health insurance and the sheer emotional stress of being unemployed, may prevent many people from setting out on their own.

But research on what is known as post-traumatic growth has found that some people become more resilient when faced with adversity, says Shawn Achor, a Harvard researcher. Creativity surges, he says, as they adapt to a new situation.

“Their brain is actually learning at a faster pace than when they are not challenged,” Mr. Achor says. “As a result of this, some individuals, the accidental entrepreneurs, they are the ones who in the midst of crisis actually respond with growth.”

In a report this summer on innovation, Ernst & Young wrote, “Experience shows that entrepreneurs should not give up on start-ups in a down economy.”

Many companies with billion-dollar market capitalizations were started during a recession, the report said, including Starbucks, Intuit and PetSmart.

Research from Kauffman in June found that more than half of the companies on the Fortune 500 list in 2009 and nearly half of the companies on the Inc. magazine 2008 list were founded during a recession or bear market.

Lynn Zuckerman Gray, 60, hopes to be one of the success stories of this recession. She lost her job at Lehman Brothers almost a year ago, when the firm collapsed. A former chief administrative officer of its global real estate group, she found herself competing with a rising number of job seekers for a dwindling pool of jobs.

Ms. Gray ended up participating in a New York City program, offered in conjunction with the Kauffman Foundation, called FastTrac NewVenture. The program, for employees displaced by the financial crisis, sent Ms. Gray in a direction she never thought she would go: starting an on-campus recruiting company called Campus Scout.

“I guess I had an entrepreneur simmering inside me because I’ve always been very creative,” she says.

The cost has been hundreds of dollars here and there, she says. Still, the reality of her financial situation is daunting. Her severance pay from Lehman ended this month, and she is now eating into her savings. So far, her new venture, Campus Scout, is in start-up mode and does not have any clients.

She says she is going to try to get part-time work, teach university classes and do some freelance writing to generate cash flow so she can keep her business going for at least two years.

IT’S not just ex-corporate workers who have started businesses out of necessity. In February, Jackie Burke, 68, a retired schoolteacher, and her daughter, Jackie McAlister, 38, a schoolteacher on maternity leave, formed the Cup and Saucer Cookie Company in Ocean City, N.J.

“I never in my lifetime thought of owning a business,” Ms. McAlister said, “the economy has forced us to be creative.” And fast-acting. Stocks nosedived in the fall, and so did her mother’s retirement account.

“Mom was crying, and she said, ‘Maybe I can go to Borders to see if they are hiring.’ I said, I’m not going to watch my retired 68-year-old mom, with two knee replacements, go work at Borders. This is not going to happen.”

Instead, Ms. McAlister and her mother brainstormed about starting an Internet business. A claim to fame they both had was making cookies, she said. She did research in January, filed incorporation papers on LegalZoom in February, started a Web site using GoDaddy.com, and by March sold their first cookies.

“It sounds like a crazy idea, but it was out of total necessity,” Ms. McAlister said. “We had to do something.”

Their Internet business is slow, helped mainly through her Facebook friends and local news coverage, she said. They sell about $200 worth on the Internet each month and about $100 at a local cafe each month. They are near to breaking even, Ms. McAlister said.

Even when she returns to school in the fall, she said, they will keep it going. “The experience has been totally worth it,” she said, and has had the added benefit of distracting them from things out of their control, like the stock market.

Entrepreneurs like the McAlisters, Ms. Gray and Mrs. Grillos have been helped by a growing number of companies that cater to the needs of new businesses.

Recently, Mrs. Grillos attended a networking event in San Francisco organized by Outright.com, which offers bookkeeping software, and Network Solutions, a company that helps small businesses start and market on the Web. The companies had specialists on hand to talk about accounting, tax, legal and other issues facing new business owners.

Kevin Reeth, chief executive of Outright, says, “We realized these people, who have had careers and worked for other people most of their professional life, are not at all prepared to go out and become a business owner.”

The companies jointly started a Web site, unintentionalentrepreneur.com, as a resource and embarked on a five-city tour in partnership with local chambers of commerce and Score, the national group of volunteer mentors. Last week, the tour ended in Manhattan, but the hope is that the networking will continue, Mr. Reeth says.

ANOTHER company that is tailoring its services to very small and new businesses is InfoStreet, a maker of Web-based small-business management software. Michael Hart, 53, of Nashville, says InfoStreet recently had the backbone of NewTerraLiving.com, his new online marketplace for eco-friendly goods, up and running very quickly, and at a very affordable cost.

Mr. Hart started his business after he left an electronic publishing company a year ago. He has been living off his savings and now has booked sales on his site. “The significantly lower costs associated with building the technology infrastructure as well as the phenomenon of social network marketing allowed me to jump in,” he says.

So, will all of these new ventures become viable entities, or are they simply résumé builders and time fillers for people temporarily out of work? For Mr. Hart, it is definitely not a path to a cubicle. “If successful, I don’t see myself returning to corporate America,” he says. “If I’m not successful, I would definitely start another company — if my wife doesn’t kill me.”

Mrs. Grillos acknowledges that she is still job-hunting. “It would be great if this became my full-time job and grew that big,” she says of Hambone Designs. “Even if I found one, I would still have this on the side.”

Martha E. Mangelsdorf, author of “Strategies for Successful Career Change,” says job seekers should be careful about spreading their energy too thinly. “Starting an ambitious business is such a consuming endeavor, I think it would be hard to do that and look for a job at the same time,” Ms. Mangelsdorf says.

“You should try to be clear if you’re starting a business that that’s really what you want to do, as opposed to you’re only doing it because you can’t find work elsewhere,” she says.

No matter what, those who become accidental entrepreneurs have a leg up on the competition, according to Mr. Reeth of Outright. “The process of going into business is going to make anybody who tried it better, smarter and more capable,” he says.

“Whether it ultimately ends a successful journey in terms of staying in business and this is what you do or you go back and get another job,” he adds, “the skills they will have to develop are going to serve them very well.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/23/business/smallbusiness/23venture.html?_r=1&em